Despite financial pressures, tourists continue to prioritise travel spending over other discretionary expenses. As a result, European travel demand continued to approach pre-pandemic levels, with foreign arrivals now at -3.2% compared to 2019, based on data from TourMIS covering January to September. This upward performance has been mainly driven by intra-European travel and the influx of US travellers leveraging favourable exchange rates.
Climate-related challenges such as heatwaves, wildfires, and floods hit tourism hotspots this summer, stressing the need for transformation in the industry to battle climate change. Other risks to Europe’s tourism outlook include the continued struggle against inflation, the war in Ukraine and weaker-than- expected growth in the eurozone1 despite falling energy prices and healthy labour markets. Nevertheless, foreign arrivals to Europe are expected to pick up by the end of 2023, albeit at a slower pace, reaching 91% of pre-pandemic levels. Projections indicate international tourist arrivals to Europe to achieve 2019 levels by 2024, a year earlier than expected.
Some divergence was apparent across destinations in terms of tourism rebound this summer. Year-to-date data show that around 1 in 3 destinations have surpassed 2019 levels of foreign arrivals. Europe’s recovery was mostly driven by Southern European and Mediterranean destinations, notably Serbia (+15%), Montenegro (+14%), Portugal (+11%), Türkiye (+8%), Malta, and Greece (both +7%). However, around 65% of reporting destinations have still not reached pre-pandemic levels of arrivals to date. Destinations neighbouring Russia and Ukraine are among those struggling the most due to the proximity to the conflict zone or the lack of Russian visitors. These include Baltic countries which have registered the sharpest declines; Estonia (-27%), Latvia (-30%), and Lithuania (-33%).
Europe's airports are now on the brink of achieving a full recovery in passenger demand. According to ACI Europe’s August traffic report, passenger traffic in the European airport network was down by only 3.4% when compared to the same period in 2019. The association also highlights potential risks to air traffic recovery including the economic slowdown in Europe, persistent inflation, higher oil prices and geopolitical shocks. The upcoming months are not exempt from potential strike-related travel disruptions, similar to those witnessed during the summer. Such effects are expected in cities like Paris, London, Valencia, and the Canary Islands.
This summer was characterised by extreme weather events including floods, wildfires, and heatwaves in several locations across Europe. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the summer of 2023 was the hottest globally since records began in 19403. This was marked by extreme temperatures, particularly in European locations in Greece, Sardinia, Sicily, Southern Italy, Malta, and eastern Spain. Like many other industries, tourism is not immune to the direct and indirect impacts of extreme weather events associated with climate change. In the long-term, these impacts are expected to alter seasonal tourism flows, influence travellers’ destination choice, and simultaneously stifle the attractiveness of warmer tourism hotspots while boosting the appeal of cooler climes during the summer.
ETC’s recent study on travel intentions among Europeans revealed that pleasant weather conditions continues to rank as the top criterion for most respondents (19%) when choosing a holiday destination, similar to the pre-summer report. The same study also showed that 14% of respondents mentioned extreme weather events as one their main travel concerns, representing a 7% increase compared to the May 2023 survey. Holidaymakers avoiding extreme heat, combined with lower travel expenses during off-peak months, could result in an extended summer season in Europe. As a result, this trend could support destinations that suffer from high seasonality and overcrowding. On a wider level, it is paramount that the tourism industry undergoes substantial changes to ensure the long-term sustainability of the sector and its resilience, while minimising its carbon footprint and protecting destinations from climate-related harm.
“Action is severely needed within the tourism industry to address our contribution to climate change. We can already see that regenerative tourism – travel actively contributing to regenerating local ecosystems, economies, and cultures – is growing fast. It is crucial that the industry and destinations work together to build comprehensive climate change mitigation strategies that focus on long-term resilience in the face of unpredictable weather patterns and extreme weather events.” said Eduardo Santander, Executive Director of the European Travel Commission (ETC).
Despite financial pressures, tourists continue to prioritise travel spending over other discretionary expenses. As a result, European travel demand continued to approach pre-pandemic levels, with foreign arrivals now at -3.2% compared to 2019, based on data from TourMIS covering January to September. This upward performance has been mainly driven by intra-European travel and the influx of US travellers leveraging favourable exchange rates.
Climate-related challenges such as heatwaves, wildfires, and floods hit tourism hotspots this summer, stressing the need for transformation in the industry to battle climate change. Other risks to Europe’s tourism outlook include the continued struggle against inflation, the war in Ukraine and weaker-than- expected growth in the eurozone1 despite falling energy prices and healthy labour markets. Nevertheless, foreign arrivals to Europe are expected to pick up by the end of 2023, albeit at a slower pace, reaching 91% of pre-pandemic levels. Projections indicate international tourist arrivals to Europe to achieve 2019 levels by 2024, a year earlier than expected.
Some divergence was apparent across destinations in terms of tourism rebound this summer. Year-to-date data show that around 1 in 3 destinations have surpassed 2019 levels of foreign arrivals. Europe’s recovery was mostly driven by Southern European and Mediterranean destinations, notably Serbia (+15%), Montenegro (+14%), Portugal (+11%), Türkiye (+8%), Malta, and Greece (both +7%). However, around 65% of reporting destinations have still not reached pre-pandemic levels of arrivals to date. Destinations neighbouring Russia and Ukraine are among those struggling the most due to the proximity to the conflict zone or the lack of Russian visitors. These include Baltic countries which have registered the sharpest declines; Estonia (-27%), Latvia (-30%), and Lithuania (-33%).
Europe's airports are now on the brink of achieving a full recovery in passenger demand. According to ACI Europe’s August traffic report, passenger traffic in the European airport network was down by only 3.4% when compared to the same period in 2019. The association also highlights potential risks to air traffic recovery including the economic slowdown in Europe, persistent inflation, higher oil prices and geopolitical shocks. The upcoming months are not exempt from potential strike-related travel disruptions, similar to those witnessed during the summer. Such effects are expected in cities like Paris, London, Valencia, and the Canary Islands.
This summer was characterised by extreme weather events including floods, wildfires, and heatwaves in several locations across Europe. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the summer of 2023 was the hottest globally since records began in 19403. This was marked by extreme temperatures, particularly in European locations in Greece, Sardinia, Sicily, Southern Italy, Malta, and eastern Spain. Like many other industries, tourism is not immune to the direct and indirect impacts of extreme weather events associated with climate change. In the long-term, these impacts are expected to alter seasonal tourism flows, influence travellers’ destination choice, and simultaneously stifle the attractiveness of warmer tourism hotspots while boosting the appeal of cooler climes during the summer.
ETC’s recent study on travel intentions among Europeans revealed that pleasant weather conditions continues to rank as the top criterion for most respondents (19%) when choosing a holiday destination, similar to the pre-summer report. The same study also showed that 14% of respondents mentioned extreme weather events as one their main travel concerns, representing a 7% increase compared to the May 2023 survey. Holidaymakers avoiding extreme heat, combined with lower travel expenses during off-peak months, could result in an extended summer season in Europe. As a result, this trend could support destinations that suffer from high seasonality and overcrowding. On a wider level, it is paramount that the tourism industry undergoes substantial changes to ensure the long-term sustainability of the sector and its resilience, while minimising its carbon footprint and protecting destinations from climate-related harm.
“Action is severely needed within the tourism industry to address our contribution to climate change. We can already see that regenerative tourism – travel actively contributing to regenerating local ecosystems, economies, and cultures – is growing fast. It is crucial that the industry and destinations work together to build comprehensive climate change mitigation strategies that focus on long-term resilience in the face of unpredictable weather patterns and extreme weather events.” said Eduardo Santander, Executive Director of the European Travel Commission (ETC).
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