Atout France has initiated a prospective reflection, entitled “Horizons 2040” aimed at identifying the factors of transformation of tourism and its environment.
The prospective approach that we initiated resulted in the formalization of four scenarios on the future of tourism by 2040. These scenarios aim to guide the evolution of tourism policies in France and provide useful insights for everyone. It is a compass to better anticipate, act usefully today and continue to develop future prospective and strategic thinking. This work is part of the ambition of the Destination France Plan to make Destination France the world reference in sustainable tourism by 2030.
To develop these scenarios and build a shared reading grid of possible developments, it is decisive to identify possible changes, certain and uncertain, likely to have an impact on tourism stakeholders. To do this, the methodological approach was to first explore the factors of change which may have an impact in the medium and long term on the environment in which these actors could operate their activities and their offers and influence the accentuated way their evolution.
Subsequently, four prospective scenarios were drawn. Coming from a combination of change factors, a prospective scenario tells the story of a possible world. It describes the environment and dynamics in which tourism stakeholders could operate in the years to come. Scripting thus makes it possible to better understand the concrete implications for the sector and the changes to be undertaken.
None of these scenarios is, however, a realistic bet on the future. But, all together, they outline credible directions covering a vast field of possibilities. Their goal is not to predict but to open avenues of reflection to anticipate possible developments, to prepare for them and to develop action plans to position themselves on the most desirable trajectories. Together, let us make this quote from Antoine de Saint Exupéry our own, more relevant than ever: “As for the future, it is not a question of predicting it, but of making it possible".
Atout France has initiated a prospective reflection, entitled “Horizons 2040” aimed at identifying the factors of transformation of tourism and its environment.
The prospective approach that we initiated resulted in the formalization of four scenarios on the future of tourism by 2040. These scenarios aim to guide the evolution of tourism policies in France and provide useful insights for everyone. It is a compass to better anticipate, act usefully today and continue to develop future prospective and strategic thinking. This work is part of the ambition of the Destination France Plan to make Destination France the world reference in sustainable tourism by 2030.
To develop these scenarios and build a shared reading grid of possible developments, it is decisive to identify possible changes, certain and uncertain, likely to have an impact on tourism stakeholders. To do this, the methodological approach was to first explore the factors of change which may have an impact in the medium and long term on the environment in which these actors could operate their activities and their offers and influence the accentuated way their evolution.
Subsequently, four prospective scenarios were drawn. Coming from a combination of change factors, a prospective scenario tells the story of a possible world. It describes the environment and dynamics in which tourism stakeholders could operate in the years to come. Scripting thus makes it possible to better understand the concrete implications for the sector and the changes to be undertaken.
None of these scenarios is, however, a realistic bet on the future. But, all together, they outline credible directions covering a vast field of possibilities. Their goal is not to predict but to open avenues of reflection to anticipate possible developments, to prepare for them and to develop action plans to position themselves on the most desirable trajectories. Together, let us make this quote from Antoine de Saint Exupéry our own, more relevant than ever: “As for the future, it is not a question of predicting it, but of making it possible".
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