EIU’s operational risk scenarios evaluate the events that could have a severe impact on its core economic and geopolitical forecasts, challenging the operations of businesses worldwide. In 2023 resilience among consumers and a gradual fall in inflation reassured uneasy investors and supported modest global growth. We expect stable, but unspectacular, global growth to continue into 2024 as economic uncertainty recedes and major central banks begin to lower policy rates in the second half of the year. This white paper explores how geopolitical tensions, the advent of new technologies and persistent environmental threats could upset the outlook for 2024.

1. Monetary policy tightening extends deep into 2024, leading to a global recession and financial volatility.
2. A green technology subsidy race becomes a global trade war.
3. Extreme weather events caused by climate change disrupt global supply chains.
4. Industrial action spreads, disrupting global productivity
5. China moves to annex Taiwan, forcing a sudden global decoupling
6. A change in the US administration leads to abrupt foreign policy shifts, straining alliances
7. Stimulus policy failures in China lead to increased state controls and diminished growth prospects
8. The Israel-Hamas war escalates into a regional conflict
9. Artificial intelligence disrupts elections and undermines trust in political institutions
10. The Ukraine-Russia war spirals into a global conflict