• US lodging demand (or sold lodging nights), in the context of this analysis, is the sum of sold US hotel room nights, booked US short-term rental listing nights on Airbnb and Vrbo, and an estimate of Caribbean and Alaska cruises by US residents expressed as cabin nights.
• In 2024, US-based cruises will add more incremental demand than US hotels. US-based cruises are expected to add 5.4M sold cabin nights in 2024 year-over-year. US hotels are expected to add 4.4M sold room nights. Cruise demand only accounts for 3.1% of US lodging demand compared to 82.7% for hotels.
• In 2024, US short-term rentals will add more incremental demand than hotels and cruises combined. US short-term rentals are expected to add 15.6M sold listing nights year-over-year. Short-term rental demand accounts for the remaining 14.2% of US lodging demand.
• US lodging demand fully recovered to 2019 levels in 2023 and is expected to expand to 2.9% ahead of 2019 levels in 2024. Hotel demand has yet to fully recover, but strong gains in shortterm rental and cruise demand have made up the difference.
• After strong pandemic-influenced gains in 2021 and 2022, US lodging demand growth has recently trailed GDP by about a percentage point. In 2023 and 2024, US lodging demand growth is estmated at 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, as compared to 2.8% and 2.9% growth in real GDP.
• We estimate 4.6 lodging nights per capita in the US in 2024, including 3.8 hotel room nights, 0.7 short-term rental listing nights, and 0.1 cruise cabin nights per capita. This compares with 4.6 lodging nights per capita in 2019.

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US lodging demand (or sold lodging nights), in the context of this analysis, is the sum of sold US hotel room nights, booked US short-term rental listing nights on Airbnb and Vrbo, and an estimate of Caribbean and Alaska cruises by US residents expressed as cabin nights.

• Growth in short-term rental and cruise demand bolster total recovery
• Short-term rental and cruise demand are taking more lodging share
• Definitions