Continued growth into 2024
Rebalancing of travel to international destinations should continue over the coming year, including greater diversity in choices which could spark new opportunities for global destinations. The pace of growth will slow relative to 2023 as leisure travel volumes converge with their pre-pandemic levels and pent-up demand has largely been realised.
Most destinations are expected to achieve increased inbound tourism expenditure in 2024 compared with 2019 in nominal terms. Many of Europe’s largest inbound markets are expected to see significant growth in spending compared to 2019, with Spain, France, and Turkey leading the way. These three major markets are set to account for 30% of the incremental global travel spend between 2019 and 2024.
However, international leisure spending in Asia-Pacific is still set to lag pre-pandemic levels due to the later re-opening of major markets and protracted recovery in capacity and sentiment. Key inbound markets in the region such as China, Thailand and Japan are expected to record sub-2019 levels of spend. However, even if China is lagging 2019 values of spending, it should still leapfrog the US to regain the top spot as the largest country in terms of international leisure travel spending.
Old favourites and new hotspots
Leisure travel growth varies considerably across countries influenced by the source market mix and traveller preference as well as destination-specific factors including infrastructure, policy, and relative attractiveness for key activities.
Many established destinations, such as Spain, France and Turkey, are performing well, and are expected to continue to see significant growth in inbound spending in the near term. The ranking of top destinations in each region is set to remain largely unchanged from pre-pandemic norms.
However, other, historically smaller, markets are benefitting from significant growth following the reopening of tourism. These include Albania, Croatia, and the Maldives with each expected to receive more than 50% growth relative to 2019 levels by 2024. These destinations are
all benefitting from increased connectivity to key source markets and prioritisation of the sector.
2030 and beyond
Over the longer run, there are clear opportunities for destinations to take advantage of rising household incomes in emerging markets and associated increases in travel demand. The proportion of Chinese households able to afford international travel is set to roughly double over the next ten years, while significant increases are also expected in other major markets such as India and Indonesia.
This growth in demand from emerging Asian markets will benefit destinations within the region and beyond. Thailand and Japan are set to experience especially strong growth from the growing demand from Chinese middle-class consumers, helped by proximity and connectivity. China is also expected to grow as a destination as well as a source market with increased linkages supporting travel in all directions. By 2033 China is expected to more than double its inbound tourism spend compared with 2024.
Elsewhere, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and South Africa should also comfortably double the amount of inbound tourism spend, as continued investment and destination development will allow them to accommodate an increased share of growing global demand. Lower rates of growth are expected in the Americas and Europe which is reflective of mature, but strong, underlying demand.
There are notable risks to the growth outlook, as well as clear opportunities for destinations to continue to gain market share. Shifting demographics could shape travel patterns as an ageing profile in many economies will influence the industry. By 2050, the proportion of the population aged 65 or over will be nearly double the current level, with profound implications for activity and destination preferences.
Increasing demand for more sustainable travel will also reshape the landscape. This could include an increased trend of slow travel as consumers potentially undertake longer but fewer trips. Climate change may also have a more direct influence on travel as weather displaces demand, potentially leading to shifts in seasonality.
However, through technological advancements and innovative management plans, leisure tourism can continue to thrive and provide for economies, communities, and travellers alike.
Continued growth into 2024
Rebalancing of travel to international destinations should continue over the coming year, including greater diversity in choices which could spark new opportunities for global destinations. The pace of growth will slow relative to 2023 as leisure travel volumes converge with their pre-pandemic levels and pent-up demand has largely been realised.
Most destinations are expected to achieve increased inbound tourism expenditure in 2024 compared with 2019 in nominal terms. Many of Europe’s largest inbound markets are expected to see significant growth in spending compared to 2019, with Spain, France, and Turkey leading the way. These three major markets are set to account for 30% of the incremental global travel spend between 2019 and 2024.
However, international leisure spending in Asia-Pacific is still set to lag pre-pandemic levels due to the later re-opening of major markets and protracted recovery in capacity and sentiment. Key inbound markets in the region such as China, Thailand and Japan are expected to record sub-2019 levels of spend. However, even if China is lagging 2019 values of spending, it should still leapfrog the US to regain the top spot as the largest country in terms of international leisure travel spending.
Old favourites and new hotspots
Leisure travel growth varies considerably across countries influenced by the source market mix and traveller preference as well as destination-specific factors including infrastructure, policy, and relative attractiveness for key activities.
Many established destinations, such as Spain, France and Turkey, are performing well, and are expected to continue to see significant growth in inbound spending in the near term. The ranking of top destinations in each region is set to remain largely unchanged from pre-pandemic norms.
However, other, historically smaller, markets are benefitting from significant growth following the reopening of tourism. These include Albania, Croatia, and the Maldives with each expected to receive more than 50% growth relative to 2019 levels by 2024. These destinations are
all benefitting from increased connectivity to key source markets and prioritisation of the sector.
2030 and beyond
Over the longer run, there are clear opportunities for destinations to take advantage of rising household incomes in emerging markets and associated increases in travel demand. The proportion of Chinese households able to afford international travel is set to roughly double over the next ten years, while significant increases are also expected in other major markets such as India and Indonesia.
This growth in demand from emerging Asian markets will benefit destinations within the region and beyond. Thailand and Japan are set to experience especially strong growth from the growing demand from Chinese middle-class consumers, helped by proximity and connectivity. China is also expected to grow as a destination as well as a source market with increased linkages supporting travel in all directions. By 2033 China is expected to more than double its inbound tourism spend compared with 2024.
Elsewhere, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and South Africa should also comfortably double the amount of inbound tourism spend, as continued investment and destination development will allow them to accommodate an increased share of growing global demand. Lower rates of growth are expected in the Americas and Europe which is reflective of mature, but strong, underlying demand.
There are notable risks to the growth outlook, as well as clear opportunities for destinations to continue to gain market share. Shifting demographics could shape travel patterns as an ageing profile in many economies will influence the industry. By 2050, the proportion of the population aged 65 or over will be nearly double the current level, with profound implications for activity and destination preferences.
Increasing demand for more sustainable travel will also reshape the landscape. This could include an increased trend of slow travel as consumers potentially undertake longer but fewer trips. Climate change may also have a more direct influence on travel as weather displaces demand, potentially leading to shifts in seasonality.
However, through technological advancements and innovative management plans, leisure tourism can continue to thrive and provide for economies, communities, and travellers alike.
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