1.2 Future Business Scenario Mapping
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business.
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business.
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business. While the coronavirus has ramped up our understanding of uncertainty to the extreme, companies will always grapple with blind spots and unknowns.
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business. While the coronavirus has ramped up our understanding of uncertainty to the extreme, companies will always grapple with blind spots and unknowns.
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business. While the coronavirus has ramped up our understanding of uncertainty to the extreme, companies will always grapple with blind spots and unknowns.
Creating a business scenario implies taking a series of actions that will help you put together different hypothetical situations: these situations represent possible future scenarios you will find yourself in.
Why is this important? Because creating scenarios allows you to be prepared and ready to face sudden changes in the market, adapting your business model and ultimately thriving as a business.
Gathering insights on both your customers and your business is an extremely effective way to understand how can you start to recover and pivot as a business. In this phase, you have to think about who your customers are and how their behaviour and needs have changed, aligning your offering and improving your relationship with them. Also, think about your business and what are the direct impacts and consequences of the crisis on your own activity.
Whilst gathering insights, try to focus on these steps:
Uncertainty represents the daily scenario we find ourselves in. Being ready to face the challenges uncertainty is bringing is key if you want to thrive as a business.
In recent research, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has proposed three different scenarios for the travel industry. In 2019, the tourism sector was employing 330 million workers all over the world, contributing to 10% of the global GDP. According to the research, in the best-case scenario, the tourism sector will lose 30% of its workforce by 2020, with a global contraction in GDP of about 30%, whether in the worst-case scenario, if no initiative is taken to protect the tourism sector, the loss of workforce will be of about 60% with a 62% contraction of the GDP compared to 2019.
Whether either the best or worst-case scenario will become reality, there is no doubt that the tourism sector will be still impacted in 2021, and further economic downturn is to be expected. In this time of uncertainty, it is important for any business to understand how these scenarios can impact their day-to-day activities in the near future.
To better assess your situation, start by asking yourself a simple question: what are the things you don't feel sure about?
In particular, try to think about:
Once you have assessed all this, start to think about the future scenario you, your customers and providers might find themselves in. In particular, focus on the worst possible scenario: this will help you be ready in case this scenario or similar scenarios will become reality. How will this scenario impact your business? How can you ensure to thrive despite a dramatic change in demand and customer behaviour? How can you reduce impacts on your business deriving from changes in your partners and providers?
Restless reinvention is the core principle any business should have in mind whilst planning for the future. In an ever-changing world, reinventing your strategy by correcting errors and preconceived assumptions could be vital to surviving and thrive as a business.
But first, you need to address your mistakes. Think about the decisions you took in the past that had a negative impact on your business performance. Why were they not right? Were they inherently wrong or was there anything good to be saved?
Mistakes normally come from wrong assumptions. An assumption is something that you accept as true without question or proof. Taking assumptions could be very risky for you as a business, as they influence any action and decision you take. There are many types of assumptions you can make that might impact your strategy, in particular, assumptions regarding:
Pivoting as a business means being successful in adapting your strategy to any scenario and meeting the expectations of your customers. Of course, it is not something that happens overnight but requires you to adopt small daily actions.
These actions need to be based on all the insights you gathered about your customers, industry and your own business, as well as on the learnings coming from your mistakes and wrong assumptions.
Pivoting is a process that starts by implementing these small actions one by one. Introduce changes in your strategy gradually and you will be finally able to pivot, creating a business that is resilient and able to tackle any future scenario.
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business. While the coronavirus has ramped up our understanding of uncertainty to the extreme, companies will always grapple with blind spots and unknowns.
Scenario mapping is an invaluable tool if you’re trying to determine what the future might look like for your business. While the coronavirus has ramped up our understanding of uncertainty to the extreme, companies will always grapple with blind spots and unknowns.
Creating a business scenario implies taking a series of actions that will help you put together different hypothetical situations: these situations represent possible future scenarios you will find yourself in.
Why is this important? Because creating scenarios allows you to be prepared and ready to face sudden changes in the market, adapting your business model and ultimately thriving as a business.
Gathering insights on both your customers and your business is an extremely effective way to understand how can you start to recover and pivot as a business. In this phase, you have to think about who your customers are and how their behaviour and needs have changed, aligning your offering and improving your relationship with them. Also, think about your business and what are the direct impacts and consequences of the crisis on your own activity.
Whilst gathering insights, try to focus on these steps:
Uncertainty represents the daily scenario we find ourselves in. Being ready to face the challenges uncertainty is bringing is key if you want to thrive as a business.
In recent research, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has proposed three different scenarios for the travel industry. In 2019, the tourism sector was employing 330 million workers all over the world, contributing to 10% of the global GDP. According to the research, in the best-case scenario, the tourism sector will lose 30% of its workforce by 2020, with a global contraction in GDP of about 30%, whether in the worst-case scenario, if no initiative is taken to protect the tourism sector, the loss of workforce will be of about 60% with a 62% contraction of the GDP compared to 2019.
Whether either the best or worst-case scenario will become reality, there is no doubt that the tourism sector will be still impacted in 2021, and further economic downturn is to be expected. In this time of uncertainty, it is important for any business to understand how these scenarios can impact their day-to-day activities in the near future.
To better assess your situation, start by asking yourself a simple question: what are the things you don't feel sure about?
In particular, try to think about:
Once you have assessed all this, start to think about the future scenario you, your customers and providers might find themselves in. In particular, focus on the worst possible scenario: this will help you be ready in case this scenario or similar scenarios will become reality. How will this scenario impact your business? How can you ensure to thrive despite a dramatic change in demand and customer behaviour? How can you reduce impacts on your business deriving from changes in your partners and providers?
Restless reinvention is the core principle any business should have in mind whilst planning for the future. In an ever-changing world, reinventing your strategy by correcting errors and preconceived assumptions could be vital to surviving and thrive as a business.
But first, you need to address your mistakes. Think about the decisions you took in the past that had a negative impact on your business performance. Why were they not right? Were they inherently wrong or was there anything good to be saved?
Mistakes normally come from wrong assumptions. An assumption is something that you accept as true without question or proof. Taking assumptions could be very risky for you as a business, as they influence any action and decision you take. There are many types of assumptions you can make that might impact your strategy, in particular, assumptions regarding:
Pivoting as a business means being successful in adapting your strategy to any scenario and meeting the expectations of your customers. Of course, it is not something that happens overnight but requires you to adopt small daily actions.
These actions need to be based on all the insights you gathered about your customers, industry and your own business, as well as on the learnings coming from your mistakes and wrong assumptions.
Pivoting is a process that starts by implementing these small actions one by one. Introduce changes in your strategy gradually and you will be finally able to pivot, creating a business that is resilient and able to tackle any future scenario.
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